Greetings! Here is this week’s coffee origins digest covering Monday 31 January – Friday 4 February, where we comment on some of the key fundamental green coffee topics of the moment.

Summary

  • Brazil records 19.77% year-on-year lower green coffee exports for the month of January
  • Shipping congestion in Europe still causing problems, likely to keep freight costs high

Certified Stocks

The number of certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the ICE exchange by the close of the week was 1,110,084 bags, which is a drop of 117,542 bags from the close of last week 28 January. 94.60 percent of these certified stocks are held in Europe (1,050,245bags) and the remaining 5.40 percent are held in the United States (57,064 bags).

A total of 560,547 bags, or 50.49 percent of the coffees recorded and kept in the exchange’s consumer country accredited warehouses, were Honduras washed arabica. In the meantime, the number of bags awaiting grading at the exchange increased by 4,715bags, bringing the total number of bags awaiting grading to 55,375 for the close of the week.

Brazil

Internal market trade in Brazil has been sluggish in recent days, as the Brazil Real has firmed against the US Dollar, creating some internal price resistance. Despite the increasing value exhibited in the New York Coffee futures market, growers continue to be hesitant to fully participate. As residual unsold coffees from the current crop continue to be drawn down, shipments continue to flow to consumer markets, albeit under a backdrop of constrained logistics. Internal prices may begin to tighten ahead of the next biennially bearing larger crop to come from Brazil, as residual unsold coffees from the current lower crop continue to flow to consumer markets. Brazil’s green coffee exports for January were 731,217 bags, or 19.77 percent, lower than the same month last year, totalling 2,968,217 bags, according to the Brazilian government.

Vietnam

Farmers and exporters of Vietnamese Robusta coffee have been at home this week to celebrate Tet New Year, which ushers in the Year of the Tiger. As a result, trade volumes have been light this week, as the market is dominated by funds and speculative businesses. It would be safe to expect internal trade in Vietnam to remain slow during the next week as many market participants return from vacation.

Ivory Coast

The Ivory Coast reported that its December coffee exports were 48,217 bags, or 75.67 percent less than the same month previous year, with a total of 15,500 bags. As a result, their country’s total coffee exports for the first four months of the October 2021 to September 2022 coffee year were 199,650 bags, or 78.34 percent less than the same period the previous year.  This reduced export performance may well be due to internal issues rather than problems with the new crop, which is expected to produce more than 1.4 million bags.

Logistics & Shipping

According to the most recent news reports from Sea-Intel, the shipping situation in Europe has been continuously worsening since the beginning of October, with no signs of recovery — or even levelling out. This suggests that freight rates may continue to rise because of the congestion, which is likely to have a negative influence on reliability and, as a result, available capacity.

Jump to this week’s Coffee Markets Summary 07-02-22 for a technical breakdown of the last few days price movements.

Published February 8, 2022
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