Welcome coffee patrons! Here is this week’s Coffee Origins Digest covering Monday 7 – Friday 11 February, where we comment on some of the key fundamental green coffee topics of the moment.

Summary

  • Arabica certified stocks record lowest level for 20 years, fuelling the highest prices for Arabica Coffee since 2011
  • Large traders take advantage of Robusta prices to move thousands of tonnes into certified warehouses, as local Asian currency woes continue

Certified Stocks

The number of certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the ICE Exchange by the close of the week was down to 1,035,410bags, which is the lowest level it has been in 20 years according to a report from Reuters. Further, Arabica coffee prices reached their highest level in over a decade last Wednesday, relating to both the supply shock of exchange certified stocks and supply concerns. For more pricing details, our Market Summary Report can be found here.

Robusta coffee meanwhile has endured a significant fall in local currency value as large traders such as Louis Dreyfus, Ecom and Sucafina have taken advantage of this and are planning to deliver over 18,000 of tonnes of Robusta coffee from Asia to the ICE Exchange Warehouses in Antwerp and London. This will likely be interpreted as a sign for traders to sell and will take the excess heat out of the benchmark prices.

Brazil

Brazil coffee growers have already sold roughly 86 percent of the expected total production of 56.50 million bags from the current Brazil Coffee harvest, according to analysts Safras & Mercado. The rate of sales at this time over a five-year average is stated to be approximately 80%, indicating that current crop sales are increasing faster than the five-year norm. Increased sales are likely due to the higher spot values when compared to prices on the futures market. Meanwhile, good rains were observed in the Brazilian coffee belt during the first week of February, according to weather reports. There have been yield prediction forecasts surfacing, indicating the possibility of a lower Brazil crop this year. As the crop prepares to begin harvesting in a few months, this is a factor that the market will be watching intently.

Vietnam

In the first four months of the current coffee year, from October 2021 to September 2022, Vietnam, the world’s top producer of Robusta coffee, exported 1,077,200 bags, or 13.61 percent more than the same period the previous year, for a total of 8,989,917 bags. According to the Vietnam Customs Authority, Vietnam’s coffee exports in January were 3.60 percent lower than the previous month, totalling 2,722,067 bags. This figure is marginally lower than the 2.91 million bags predicted for the month’s coffee exports.

Tanzania

According to the Tanzanian Coffee Board, coffee output for the current coffee year, which runs from October 2021 to September 2022, is expected to be 20.33 percent lower, or 247,433 bags, then the previous year, with a total of 969,667 bags. Despite the reduction in coffee production, the analysis predicts that coffee revenue for the coffee year of October 2021 to September 2022 would be 173.77m USD, up 22.10 percent from the previous year. This reflects the New York C market’s enhanced performance over the last 12 months.

Colombia

Colombia’s National Coffee Growers Federation announced that the country’s coffee production in January was 213,000 bags, or 19.70 percent lower than the same month the previous year, with a total of 868,000 bags. As a result, cumulative coffee exports for the first four months of the current coffee year, October 2021 to September 2022, were 1,030,000 bags, or 18.98 percent, lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, which totalled 4,396,000 bags.

Logistics

With a continuing shipping logjam, larger traders have started to ship coffee in breakbulk vessels, a move that has not been seen in coffee logistics for over 25 years and is indicative of the continued container shortage.

Breakbulk vessels, instead of loading coffee into containers, pile the bags in the vessels directly – this is cheaper to do (up to 50% less expensive), but not without its risks. The quality of the beans may suffer is excess moisture affect the shipment during loading and unloading of the coffee. Still, some industry watchers describe this move as potentially game-changing, in the effort to keep the world’s coffee moving.

Looking for pricing analysis for the week? Catch our Market Summary Report here.

Published February 13, 2022
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