Welcome readers to this week’s Coffee Origins Digest covering Monday 14 – Friday 20 February, where we highlight some of the key fundamental green coffee topics of the moment.

Summary

  • Kenya announces record revenues as coffee sales soar due to pivoting demand from fall-out of Brazilian frost in 2021
  • Ethiopian Coffee trading exceeds targets as markets search to keep pace with demand

Certified Stocks

The number of certified washed Arabica coffee stocks held against the New York exchange increased to 1,028,006 bags, with 94.31 percent of these certified stocks held in Europe (969,467 bags) and 5.69 percent held in the United States (58,539). A total of 371,273 bags, or 36.12% of the coffees registered and kept in the exchange’s consumer country certified warehouses, were washed arabica from Brazil, with another 53.89 percent of these certified coffees coming from Honduras. In the meantime, the number of bags awaiting grading at the exchange decreased by 5,456 bags, resulting in a total of 56,398 bags.

The Certified Robusta coffee stocks held against the London exchange have been reported to have decreased by 42,000 bags in the week leading up to Monday 14th February, with these reserves now totalling 1,488,500 bags.

Brazil

Brazil coffee producers sold roughly 32% of the expected total production of 63 million bags from July 2022 to June 2023, according to analysts Safras & Mercado. With an expected 37% of arabica production already sold, compared to 28% in the same period last year, and 19% of Conilon Robusta sales exceeding the 9% recorded at the same time in 2021, the future looks bright. According to the survey, producers are still hesitant to fully participate in forward sales activity, owing to high marginal costs and the persistent volatility witnessed in the New York Coffee futures market.

Colombia

The Colombian Government Department of Agriculture has announced that coffee production might reach 13.20 million bags in the 2022 calendar year, up 5% from the somewhat conservative 12.60 million bags produced in the previous year. Better weather conditions, as well as less internal restraints, were listed in the research as factors that could lead to higher yields. However, this is contrary to several independent analysts who believe that the crop year from October 2020 to September 2021 was approximately 13.60 million bags, and that Colombia could witness a year-on-year reduction in production, to a level of around 13.30 million bags, citing the extremely rainy weather.

Colombia arguably remains one of the industry’s leading producers of premium washed arabica coffee, with a potential output of 15 million bags. Since the beginning of 2021, Colombia’s peso currency has lost 15.68 percent of its value versus the US dollar. Inflationary costs have been increasingly visible, with increased gasoline and growing expenditures adding to rising production costs.

Uganda

The Ugandan Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) announced that the country’s coffee exports in January were 43,709 bags, or 9.80% less than the same month previous year, totalling 402,212 bags. Uganda Robusta exports decreased by 20.76 percent to 315,265 bags in January this year, compared to the same month previous year, while Arabica exports increased by 80.84 percent to 86,947 bags. The UCDA also reported that overall exports for the first four months of the current coffee year, which runs from October 2021 to September 2022, were 226,455 bags, or 13.14 percent more than the same period the previous year, totalling 1,950,016 bags.

Kenya

In January, Kenya’s monthly coffee revenues nearly doubled to $90.4 million (Sh10.2 billion) because of high global prices caused by the supply constraint. The Nairobi Coffee Exchange (NCE) reported a 90 percent increase in earnings from $47.5 million in the same month a year ago, owing to a market shortage caused by frost in Brazil, which hampered production at the world’s largest producer. Volume growth was 64 percent greater compared to the previous season, increasing the number of bags to 217,034 from 132,149.

Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s Coffee and Tea Authority released a Statement saying that the country earned $645.1 million from the shipment of 162, 818 tonnes of coffee in the last seven months. This is positive for coffee traders considering the on-going geopolitical tensions in the region. Ethiopian coffee exports continue to be dominated by Germany. In the last seven months, the East African nation shipped 39, 579.8 tonnes of coffee to the European nation, earning $137.86 million (or 21 percent of the total revenue). In the top 10 destinations for Ethiopia coffee, Saudi Arabia and Japan are ranked second and third, respectively. In the same period, more than 24,563 tonnes of coffee worth $86.14 million were exported to Saudi Arabia, while Japan purchased 17, 239.25 tonnes of Ethiopian coffee for $65.79 million. The other top ten destinations for Ethiopian coffee are Belgium, the United States, South Korea, Italy, China, France, and Taiwan, in that order.

Commitment of Traders

The non-commercials increased their net long position to 50,918 lots in the CFTC’s COT report with the cut-off Tuesday, February 8th. The commercials increase their net short position by -7,110 lots, bringing it to -101,271 lots. Both non-commercials and commercials continued to advance their positions, which had a cut-off date of Tuesday, February 15th. Noncommercials were reduced to 53,279 lots, while commercials were reduced to -103,389 lots. The decrease in Certified US Arabica stockpiles continues at a rapid pace, reaching 1.01 million bags, down 100,000 bags from the previous report.

Are you looking for pricing analysis for the week? Read our Coffee Markets Summary here.

Published February 21, 2022
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